Mankind’s ability to produce sufficient food and energy to meet future global demand will be put to the test in coming decades. This is an enormous challenge never faced before by human beings, consisting of guaranteeing the planet’s sustainability and respecting human rights, in light of the expected growth of the world population from currently 6.7 billion to 9 billion by 2050.

Population growth will increase social inequity and pressure the use of natural resources. Surely it will also increase the lack of water, the degradation of land, the depletion of fish inventories, the consumption of cereal, grain and meat and bring about a reduction in biodiversity. Furthermore, the production of biofuel from biomass (sugarcane, corn, soya and algae) is expected to pressure the increase in the use of land and water to produce energy.

Signs that difficult times lie ahead are already to be seen, such as undeniable global warming and the food and energy price peak in 2008, which only stopped with the global financial crisis. All this has again unleashed global concern with food and energy safety. These issues are again priority items on the international agenda, along with climate change. The other side of the coin are the opportunities the planet, with 9 billion inhabitants, has to offer.

Opportunities such as economic growth, increase of investments in scientific research, the development of new technologies and new drugs, the appearance of innovative solutions in agriculture, industry, trade and services, the creation of alternatives to eliminate famine and misery and the creation of a new mentality of sustainability on the planet. There is more hope than fear for humanity, because human beings have always faced overwhelming challenges in their evolutionary process, having been successful in their fight for survival.

The philosopher Lester R. Brown states that the “option for mankind is to adopt extraordinary measures concerning demand and the re-directing of business, similar in scale and urgency to the mobilization of the resistance in World War II, and that to that end, four components are essential: a huge effort to reduce carbon emissions by 80% until 2020 in comparison with 2006 levels; the stabilization of the world population at eight billion inhabitants around 2040; the elimination of poverty; and the restoration of forests, soil and water systems.

Net CO₂ emissions can be systematically reduced by increasing energy efficiency and substantially investing in renewable energy sources. We also need to ban deforestation around the world, like many countries did, and plant billions of trees to sequester carbon. The transition from fossil fuel to renewable forms of energy may be accomplished by imposing a carbon tax, while at the same time awarding certificates to reduce income tax.

Stabilizing the population and eliminating poverty go hand in hand. In fact, the key to accelerating in the direction of smaller families is eliminating poverty – and vice versa.  A means to at least assure all children basic education. Another is to provide basic healthcare at the small town level, so that people can trust that their children will survive to become adults.

Women anywhere in the world must have access to reproductive health and to services involving family planning. The fourth component, to restore the Earth’s natural systems and resources, implies a global initiative to deter the decrease in ground water levels and to increase water productivity: the best use one can make of each extracted drop.

This means aiming at more efficient irrigation systems and more efficient crops in terms of water use. In some countries, this means to cultivate (and eat) more wheat than rice, considering that rice is a culture that intensively uses water. For industrial plants and towns this means to do what some are already doing, i.e., to continuously recycle water.

At the same time, one needs to launch a global effort aimed at soil preservation, like the Dust Bowl initiative of the thirties. To build terraces, to plant trees that act as barriers against erosion resulting from wind gusts and to practice direct planting, in which the soil is not tilled and plant residues are left in the field, are among the most important measures for soil preservation”, concludes Lester Brown.

Looking at the issue from a strategic point of view, the Brazilian sugar-based energy industry may be classified as part of the solution for worldwide problems of food safety, energy safety and climate change. First, because Brazil’s sugarcane agro industry is the largest producer in the world, directly contributing one of the most important raw materials of the global food industry.

Then, in its capacity as the second largest ethanol producer on the planet, with the potential to again become the number one, this very sugarcane agro industry contributes to the solution for the demand of fuel for vehicles in the domestic market, while having the production capacity to meet world demand. Finally, as the world’s largest bioenergy producer, Brazil’s sugar-based energy industry contributes to reducing fossil energy consumption.

One should further point out that the industry also strongly contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In summary, the sugar-based energy industry directly contributes on all work fronts identified by the philosopher Lester R. Brown, on how to save the planet. The future macro-economic scenario offers opportunities and poses threats for all productive industries, but the outlook for Brazil’s sugarcane agro industry is excellent.

This is expected to accelerate the entry of new competitors in the industry, as well as to increase the acquisition and merger process of large companies. Another important development will be the increase of investments in research, technology and new applications for sugarcane, its products and sub-products. Progress in the ways companies are managed and a better labor profile are also expected.

Competitive ethanol prices and ethanol’s advantages for the environment will pressure rich country governments to open their markets. The Brazilian sugar-based energy industry’s profile will be completely different in the next two decades. Competition will develop quickly and will fundamentally change its rules in coming years. Are we ready? Your answer is the verdict.