Protagonist, today, as one of the most sustainable and easily accessible solutions for the global decarbonization process, resulting from the increasingly audacious goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, replacing fossil fuels, the future of ethanol, for less as we know it today, it ranges from optimism to concerns resulting, or not, from its survival. I explain.

There is no longer any doubt that ethanol is, by far, the best solution for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in various parts of the world. Proof of this is its widespread production in several countries around the world, such as the United States, which for years has become the world's largest ethanol producer, surpassing India and many other countries in South America and Europe.

In Brazil, a country that holds the title of “inventor” of ethanol, or, at least, of the use of fuel in a large part of its vehicle fleet, ethanol has already prevented the emission of no less than 600 million tons of carbon dioxide, over the last 20 years, since the launch of flex-fuel vehicles in 2003. Today, the share of biofuels, mostly ethanol, in the Brazilian energy matrix is around 38%.

However, not even these predicates enable us to say, with certainty, what the future of our sector will be like. This is because to become the fuel of the future it is necessary to survive the present. In the 2023/24 harvest, ethanol represented, in the mix of the entire sugar-energy chain, even considering its production cost today above the sales price, just over 51% of sugarcane production, with the potential to reach much further. But this will depend on a series of factors.

Among the most relevant, if not the most, is the extent to which Brazilian society is willing to contribute to the process of decarbonization via ethanol in our energy matrix. We therefore have to value our efforts, which are not small, in order to provide a more sustainable future for our planet.

The externalities of ethanol are not yet recognized even in our country, as stated above, the birthplace of its successful experience. Today, the consumer remains disciplined, only in the cabalistic account of 70%, that is, if ethanol costs up to 70% of the price of gasoline at the pump, it is advantageous. But what about other externalities?

I mention just a few here: the fixation of men in the countryside, since more than 3 hundred plants are located in rural areas, generating jobs and foreign exchange for thousands of municipalities; the reduction in the import of fossil fuels, helping the country's trade balance; the capture of carbon dioxide through the photosynthesis process of this magical plant called sugar cane (ethanol emits up to 90% less greenhouse gases than gasoline); among many others. It is estimated that the global search for the energy transition via ethanol could, at least, triple our annual ethanol production. And, to do so, we have to see these externalities recognized, not only by consumers, but also by the powers established through public policies that strengthen our sector.

The big question is: will the use of ethanol in the future be fuel and/or for more noble uses such as aviation and navigation? Or all this and more?

Just to meet the demand for sustainable aviation fuel, to cite one example, we would have to jump from 300 million liters produced in 2023 to 5 billion liters annually in 2025. According to experts in the aviation sector, sustainable aviation fuel is the only solution for the decarbonization of this area.

The CEO of the Atvos Group, Bruno Serapião, announced, at the beginning of March, that a technical team is preparing a project that will determine investments by Atvos, one of the largest biofuel producers in Brazil. This will take place in a factory dedicated to the production of sustainable aviation fuel, one of the first on an industrial scale for the product in the world.

As a source of hydrogen production, for the vehicle energy transition, another billion liters would be required annually, which could make ethanol a more advantageous input for Brazil. Huge investments are being made mainly by sector giants to meet these growing demands. Raízen, for example, has more than 10 billion reais in investments for the construction, by 2027, of another 8 second-generation ethanol plants, made from cellulose found in sugarcane straw or other plants. Each unit requires investments of 1.2 billion reais and its production is almost completely commercialized to comply with European, Japanese and American regulations.

Another open range in the future of ethanol would be its use in the process of decarbonizing shipping around the world. Potential has not even been estimated yet, in terms of quantity, but it could, at times, greatly multiply the global demand for biofuel. The potential of ethanol as a fuel for navigation, especially in vessels that seek to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and depend on more sustainable energy sources, requires, however, some pertinent observations that are already under study, such as:

Its renewable source;
• Significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions;
• Technology for compatible engines;
• Lower environmental impact in case of spills;
• Development of necessary infrastructure for the storage of ethanol and its distribution in ports and marinas;
• Diversification of the energy matrix in navigation;
• Stimulating technological innovations.

During the sixth UDOP Innovation Seminar, last November, we discussed the topic of ethanol in navigation. On the occasion, we even had a talk by Mário Barbosa, General Sales Manager for Latin America at Wärtisila Marine, announcing tests with ethanol engines in large shipping for the beginning of 2024.

It is also worth highlighting other persistent efforts to guarantee a more promising future for our ethanol, such as the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira; Pietro Mendes, National Secretary of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels; Marlon Arraes, General Ethanol Coordinator; and other technicians from the Ministry of Mines and Energy who spare no effort in presenting the externalities of our ethanol in Brazil and around the world. In addition to the tireless effort of Federal Deputy Arnaldo Jardim, one of the greatest defenders of our ethanol today, heading the rapporteur for the Future Fuel Bill, which will represent a major watershed for our sector.

Therefore, when we imagine the future of our ethanol, I once again reflect on what, or what, will be the routes for this development. If all roads lead to Rome, as the popular saying goes, will all routes lead us to the future? And, without forgetting the present?