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Heloisa Borges Bastos Esteves

Director of Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuel Studies at the Energy Research Company

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Perspectives and challenges for the next decade

Brazil is recognized as a country with a high share of renewable energy in its energy matrix. What few remember is that almost 30% of the renewability of our energy matrix comes from biomass. And this situation should last and even expand for the next few years. This is because the diversity and renewability of the national energy matrix are not only one of the attributes that contribute to Brazil's energy security, but also because policies aimed at encouraging bioenergy have numerous positive interfaces with our ambitions to decarbonize the economy and develop socioeconomic.

Public policies to encourage the use of bioenergy, however, are nothing new in the Brazilian scenario. In fact, they have been present since the 1970s, with the institution of Proálcool, which aimed to replace part of the gasoline in the Otto cycle for economic and energy security reasons, followed by the launch, by the automobile industry, of ethanol engines.

After a long period of coexistence with cars powered by ethanol, and some mishaps, the automotive industry launched, in 2003, the flex fuel technology fuel, which allowed the vehicle owner to use gasoline, ethanol or a mixture of the two in any proportion, which boosted the consumption of this biofuel in Brazil. In the early 2000s, the national program for the production and use of biodiesel was launched, with mandates for the compulsory replacement of part of fossil diesel, which aimed to insert this biofuel in a sustainable manner in the Brazilian energy matrix, with a focus on inclusion social and regional development. Finally, in the second decade of the 21st century, RenovaBio was launched , a policy that aims to encourage the manufacture and use of biofuels, rewarding the most efficient producers, with a broader view of the strategic importance of bioenergy in the Brazilian decarbonization strategy.

As you can see, the results we present today are the result of a long and consistent process, which is being increasingly improved, so that other biofuels (such as biogas, aviation biokerosene and advanced biofuels) can also be part of the energy basket . of low carbon emissions in the energy matrix.

Despite the fact that the highlight of the bioenergy system in Brazil is currently the transport sector (with a predominance of ethanol and biodiesel), the bioelectricity generated with the residues of energy crops is also an important product within the portfolio of the bioenergy system. In addition to generating electricity from sugarcane bagasse, wood chips and rice straw, other products, such as straw and sugarcane tips and lye, are already being transformed into biogas, with great prospects for energy generation. electrical, or even for use in internal combustion engines.

A great advantage of the bioenergy system built in Brazil is that, due to our favorable edaphoclimatic conditions and extensive land availability, the systems were conceived as integrated food and energy production systems, allowing planning that maximizes the advantages, both for the production of energy and for food production. In fact, in recent years, the productivity of cultures that provide the raw material for bioenergy has been increasing significantly, which will allow, in the future, less use of arable land.

The Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2032, prepared by Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, a company linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, indicates that the total supply of ethanol will reach 47 billion liters in 2032, highlighting the increase in the representativeness of ethanol from maize (which accounts for around 20% of the total supply, reaching 9 billion liters at the end of the decade).

Sugarcane will remain the main input for the production of ethanol and, as a result, the residues from this crop will be able to be used to expand the generation of bioelectricity , including the incorporation of straws and tips, which allows reaching the level of 4 .1 average Gigawatts (with technical potential for commercialization of up to 6 average Gigawatts in 2032).

Biogas from the sugar-energy sector will have an ever-increasing presence in the future. Versatile, the biofuel can be used to generate electricity instead of diesel, or mixed with fossil natural gas in gas pipeline networks. It is estimated that the potential for biogas production in 2032 is 35 billion normal cubic meters (19 billion normal cubic meters of biomethane ), from vinasse and filter cake and straw and cane tips sugar.

For biodiesel, the reference scenarios indicate that soybean oil remains the main raw material in the coming years and that the demand for this biofuel reaches 12 billion liters in 2032.

However, the development of other promising crops, such as palm and macaw palm, which are highly oil producers, emerge as potential inputs to be added to raw materials for the national production of biodiesel.

It is important to move forward with initiatives to create public policies and deepen knowledge about sustainable aviation fuels and low-carbon fuels for maritime transport. By 2032, the market share of these biofuels is expected to be around 2% of total aviation fuel demand, but there is still room to move further and faster. And yet, in addition to all the programs currently underway, a major challenge is to think of a new configuration for the bioenergy sector, in which the plants, which today produce biofuels and other co-products, are even more integrated into a new system. This arrangement of biorefineries will produce, in addition to energy, base molecules that can replace or serve as inputs to a large integrated chain, such as the cosmetics, food and drug industry, boosting the bioeconomy.

As a last message, I reinforce that the path towards the bioeconomy and the energy transition in Brazil opens up clear perspectives to advance in important points among the 17 listed as Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the United Nations, with emphasis on:

Ensure a healthy life and promote well-being for all, at all ages;
Ensure reliable, sustainable, modern and affordable access to energy for all;
Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable;
resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation;
Ensure sustainable production and consumption patterns;
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts;

Protect, restore and promote the sustainable use of Earth's ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.

Bioenergetic systems are key to achieving the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and their consequent influence on climate change. Brazil's privileged position regarding the renewability of its energy resources in relation to the rest of the world is a comparative advantage to lead actions towards sustainable development, the fight against climate change and technological innovation, basic conditions for the route of energy transition.

This is our challenge, this is our goal.