Science has already demonstrated anthropogenic responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and their consequences: extreme temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, melting polar ice caps, rising ocean levels, biological damage, disputes over natural resources and strategic biological assets, such as food, water and territories, which can aggravate and intensify large human movements, generators of conflicts, social violence, resistance to migrants and uncontrolled and disproportionate competition between nations.

The analysis, “New US Defense Strategy: permanencies, innovations and lessons for Brazil”, by the National Institutes of Science and Technology , presents the effects of climate change as the “existential challenge of our time”. Recognizes that measures to mitigate environmental impacts are behind schedule in their implementation and compliance with commitments made at summits such as COP 26 or the Paris Agreement for zero net emissions by 2050.

The challenge of replacing fossil energy sources with clean, renewable and sustainable sources requires strong state regulation; encouraging research and innovation; educational training in tune with these new technologies from sources such as: solar, hydraulic, wind, geothermal, bioenergy, tidal and hydrogen, and radical behavioral change in society. Environmental impacts stem from the Greenhouse Effect, caused by water vapor, ozone, chlorofluorocarbon, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane gases, which results in Earth warming of around 30º. At that level, it ensures the diverse life we know.

The highlighted figure 1 demonstrates that the Earth's average temperature presents a growing anomaly. The historical accumulation of gases from human activities is associated with this climate anomaly. They are: carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide, surpassing the conditions that affect the quality of life on the planet. The intensity in the distribution of emissions by countries has changed over time. The United Kingdom was at the head of this classification, from the first industrial revolution until 1888. Followed by the United States, which is responsible for the largest accumulation as a carbon dioxide emitter, due to its industrial and economic leadership, as shown in figure 2.

The highlighted figure 3 shows the current situation of Asian countries (China and India), which account for 53% of emissions: China with a quarter of total emissions; North America emits 18% and Europe 28% of emissions; Africa and South America, with the exception of Brazil, are responsible for 3 to 4% of global emissions.

The temperatures registered this year led the Secretary General of the United Nations Organization to declare that for many years the Earth has experienced the effects of Global Warming, but now we are already in the Era of Global Ebullition, as there are waves of extreme heat of 50?°C and its impacts have fulfilled predictions and repeated warnings from scientists, leading the International Meteorological Organization to warn that we are entering uncharted territory”, in evidence that efforts to contain climate effects are failing. For a long time, climate change was treated as a problem restricted to the environment or public health, but the economic impact bias is also being highlighted.

The World Meteorological Organization, in its publication “Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses Caused by Extreme Climatic and Water Phenomena”, counted 11 thousand natural disasters associated with the climate between the years 1970 and 2019, causing a loss of 3.64 trillion dollars. These extremes are a preview of what the future holds, according to Petteri Taalas , Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization. If current emission levels are maintained until 2070, global economic losses will accumulate to 178 trillion dollars, according to the Delloite Audit.

The global energy market is estimated at 21 trillion dollars, zero emissions by 2050 and limiting global warming to 1.5°C could represent profits of 43 trillion dollars. For Bob Keefe, author of Climatenomics, more than the perception of the costs of the crisis, it is the chances of making money with the transition to a sustainable economy that may represent the key to a revolution in the area. Investments in innovation can contain the escalation of climate and signals the generation of wealth in actions to mitigate climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations, for this goal to be achieved, emissions need to be reduced by 48%, at least, by 2030, requiring a global mobilization of governments and civil society, never seen before. For this, there is a need for intense changes in world geopolitics.

Brazil has the opportunity to play a leading role in terms of its energy matrix, especially in ethanol production. Of a total of around 60 million cars, around 40 million cars have technology flex or hybrid. There is even potential for green hydrogen to serve the maritime fleet of 100,000 cargo ships, or green kerosene for the world's air fleet.

There is potential for expanding the area planted with sugarcane, which today represents around 12% of the area suitable for the crop, not including degraded pasture areas. With culture, there are chances of decarbonizing these biomes dedicated to the production of bioenergy, food and biodiversity.

The current situation is providing Brazil with leadership in several international organizations: G20, Working Group on Energy Transitions, Global Alliance for Biofuels, 15th Ministerial Meeting of the Ministerial of Clean Energy, 9th Ministerial Meeting of the Innovation Mission, to address the necessary advances in transition to a global clean energy economy. In addition to COP30, in 2025, in Belém, Brazil will have the opportunity to advance its position, supported by robust bioenergy practices.