Biodiesel, a biofuel derived from plant and animal sources, represents a renewable alternative to petroleum diesel, contributing to the diversification of the Brazilian energy matrix. The implementation of the National Biodiesel Production and Use Program marked the beginning of the adoption of this fuel in Brazil, establishing guidelines for sustainable, inclusive and competitive production.

The program encouraged the participation of small producers through the "social biofuel" seal and defined mandatory blends of biodiesel in diesel, starting with 2% (B2) in 2005 and reaching 14% (B14) currently. There are expectations of an increase to 15% (B15) and possibly beyond 20% in the coming years. In 2023, the country achieved a record for biofuel production, producing around 7.5 million cubic meters. This progress reflects constant improvements in the quality of biodiesel, aligning with international standards and ensuring reliability for economic agents.

Brazil is positioned between the third and second largest producers of biodiesel in the world, with the capacity to rise to first place due to its robust industrial sector and vast sustainable agricultural potential. The country benefits from its tropical location, availability of arable land and favorable climate, enabling the production of food and energy without competition for resources. The diversity of native and exotic oilseed species in Brazil, suitable for different climatic and soil conditions, offers ample opportunities for the exploration of alternative raw materials to soybean oil, which currently dominates the biodiesel market, with around 70% of production.

Dependence on soybean oil presents strategic risks, raising the need to diversify raw material sources for biodiesel. The diversification of the supply of raw materials on a scale is essential for the expansion of the sector, requiring technological advances to increase economic and productive viability. Furthermore, one must consider the demand that will come for vegetable oil and fats for the production of new biofuels, such as sustainable aviation fuels and renewable diesel.

The prospects for biodiesel in the coming years are broadly positive, reflecting the global energy transition towards more sustainable and renewable sources. Based on the context presented, we can highlight the following aspects that will shape the future of biodiesel:

Increased mandatory mixing: With the forecast of increasing the blend of biodiesel in diesel to 15% (B15) and discussions to further increase this percentage beyond 20%, a significant increase in demand for biodiesel is expected. This will encourage the expansion of production capacity and technological innovation in the sector.

Technological development and diversification of raw materials: As a country with great agricultural potential, Brazil has the opportunity to develop technologies for the cultivation and processing of oilseeds in addition to soybeans, such as oil palm, canola, cotton, sunflower, safflower, macaúba, among others. This will not only increase the supply of raw materials for biodiesel, but also reduce dependence on a single source, promoting the sustainability and resilience of the production chain.

Integration with sustainable agriculture: Biodiesel production in Brazil has the potential to be integrated with sustainable agricultural practices, taking advantage of the country's strategic location, its climate, and the availability of arable land without compromising the large national biomes. This may include the cultivation of oilseeds in production systems that favor biodiversity and the efficient use of natural resources. For example, crop rotation can be used to alternate between food crops and oilseeds for biofuel production, enriching the soil and increasing its productivity.

The integration of crops with livestock in Crop-Livestock-Forest Integration systems not only optimizes land use, but also contributes to the recovery of degraded pastures.

Public Policies and Incentives: For Brazil to reach its maximum potential as a biodiesel producer, public policies and incentives will be crucial. This includes support for research and development of new technologies, the creation of financing mechanisms for producers and industries, and policies that promote social inclusion and regional development.

Global market and export: With growing global demand for renewable energy, Brazil is well positioned to become a world leader in the production and export of biodiesel. This will require investments in logistics and production capacity, as well as efforts to guarantee the quality and sustainability of Brazilian biodiesel in international markets.

Technical-scientific and political challenges: The development of the biodiesel sector in Brazil will continue to face challenges, including the need to overcome technical-scientific bottlenecks, such as improvements in the yield and efficiency of production processes, and political challenges, such as the stability of production policies encouragement and harmonization of interests between different interested parties.

Social awareness and acceptance: Social acceptance and demand for biodiesel as a sustainable alternative to petroleum diesel is critical to its success. Education and awareness initiatives can play a crucial role in promoting biodiesel and building a robust market.

In summary, the future of biodiesel in Brazil is promising, with potential for global leadership, economic diversification and significant contribution to environmental sustainability. However, for these perspectives to come to fruition, a coordinated approach will be required that involves innovation, investment and collaboration between the public and private sectors, in addition to an ongoing commitment to sustainability and social inclusion. For Brazil, without a doubt, biodiesel is a biofuel that is here to stay.