The expression of the moment is the energy transition. But, after all, what is really sought with this transition? Contributing to the climate is fundamental, but it is necessary to go further, it is necessary to be economical, consider the country's energy security and evaluate the technological dependence that will be created by choosing this or that path.

The energy transition has been mentioned in all official speeches and has been included in the agenda of all companies, but the question that remains is: what will be the path to be followed? Are we going to adhere to the initiatives developed around the world or are we going to take advantage of our peculiarities and our competitive advantages? Will we be locomotives or wagons?

The year 2022 was marked by the advance of renewable energy in Brazil. The country surpassed the mark of 92% of participation of hydroelectric, wind, solar and biomass plants in the total generated by the National Interconnected System, the highest percentage of the last 10 years. Brazil already has a diversified energy matrix, we are ahead of almost all other countries; the diversification goals that other countries will take decades to achieve we have already achieved today. The question, again, is not how we will make the transition, it has already been done, but how we will take advantage of it.

I am surprised by the discussions that arise all the time regarding the new initiatives for clean energy in Brazil: electric cars, green hydrogen, expansion of solar energy generation, offshore wind farms and so on... The cry is constant: we need incentive programs! We need more research! Public companies and the government need to engage and direct resources!

There are moments when I think I'm in China, or Japan, or California, or Europe threatened by Russian natural gas; Don't get me wrong, I am not against the development and implementation of these technologies in Brazil; my point is just to relativize the importance and priority that should be given to them, taking into account the stage at which biofuels are found in Brazil.

Studies indicate that the consumption of biofuels will quadruple by 2050 in all evaluated scenarios, whether in limiting global warming or in the speed of penetration of electrification. Now, if there is such a potential, if we have the greatest competitive advantage in the world in terms of the production of agricultural products, if we have mastery of technology in production, if we have the largest infrastructure installed in the logistics and supply of biofuels, why does ethanol appear so in such a shy way, and sometimes it doesn't even appear, in the energy transition discussions in Brazil?

Sugarcane has the potential to be up to 10 times more effective than photovoltaic cells (solar energy) in decarbonizing potential per hectare of land in the future, in countries with a tropical climate. There are numerous technological and economic challenges for this to happen, but they are no greater than the other challenges that other clean energy generation technologies will have to face.

Sugarcane agricultural productivity could reach 90 tons per hectare by 2030; with irrigation and improvements in fertilization, genetic improvement and biotechnology can raise that threshold to 150 tons per hectare. Several ongoing projects promise to increase the efficiency of the fermentation process by between 10% and 15%, increasing the production of ethanol per ton of sugarcane.

Researchers recently discovered how to increase the saccharification of sugarcane bagasse by up to 120% over 12 months. The discovery will significantly reduce second-generation ethanol production costs. Finally, the opportunities for increasing productivity in all stages of ethanol production are endless and attainable in the short and medium term.

Much is said about electric cars, which, without a doubt, are already a reality in the world, however, in a quick analysis, they still seem somewhat meaningless for our country. Adoption of electric cars is still not for everyone and this is largely due to the price charged for this sustainable future.

Currently, the cheapest electric car for sale in the country can be found for 160 thousand reais, while the most recent launches exceed 400 thousand reais. The most expensive model, from the Porsche brand, does not cost less than 1 million reais. In a country where the vast majority of cars are the so-called popular ones, it doesn't seem to me, in the medium and long term, that this is a very sensible bet to be made.

In other countries, the rise of electric cars was driven by aggressive policies by local governments, which offered tax breaks to buyers; something like this is unthinkable in Brazil, due to the country's economic and fiscal problems. It is unbelievable that at least seven Brazilian states already have legislation that allows reducing or exempting the collection of Motor Vehicle Ownership Tax for electric and hybrid vehicles, or that, amazingly, in São Paulo, electric vehicles do not need to follow the rotation.

Who cares about these incentives? Certainly not the environment, because, if that were the case, the same initiatives would be being taken to benefit ethanol, which is equally clean and available on a large scale. By the way, following this logic, the sale of gasoline should be prohibited in large Brazilian cities.

The challenges in Brazil for electric cars are immense: The high price of vehicles, due to the cost of batteries (which will only become cheaper through advances in chemistry, and we don't know when and if they will happen), and the implementation of a vast charging infrastructure are some of them. Let's face it, in a country where we still have regions without electricity, does it make sense to invest in recharging facilities for Volvos, Toyotas and Porshes?

Another darling of the time is green hydrogen. Its demand will gain strength with the application, mainly in sectors of high energy intensity. Europe is the fastest growing market for green hydrogen, mainly due to the fragility it demonstrates in the face of dependence on natural gas from Russia. Ambitious green hydrogen deployment targets are also on the rise in the United States, bolstered by President Biden's commitments to provide incentives for renewable energy.

Brazil is well positioned to become one of the main market players in the production of green hydrogen, leading indicators of competitiveness versus cost due to a clean energy matrix, a large installed capacity of wind and solar energy and a solid infrastructure of ports and railways . However, there are huge challenges. For the green hydrogen market to really take off and gain scale, there are at least six important bottlenecks:
1) the technology currently available is still quite limited;
2) government support is uneven around the world;
3) existing infrastructures need to evolve;
4) production costs are still high;
5) poor transport and storage techniques are deficient;
6) the high energy loss during all stages of the production and transport chain. Anyway, promising technology that will certainly have a prominent place in the future, but it is far from being something close and tangible for the Brazilian reality.

Recently, important companies announced the creation of a joint venture with the objective of developing and commercializing a new technology for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, which will use ethanol as a raw material. Sustainable Aviation Fuel, which uses non-petroleum raw material, is a low-carbon alternative to traditional aviation fuel, which offers up to 85% less greenhouse gas emissions, that is, yet another gigantic market that opens up to the ethanol.

Adding up all the potential for increasing agricultural and industrial productivity with the possibility of new plants, plus second-generation ethanol, plus biogas production, plus the opportunity to extract hydrogen from ethanol molecules, plus ethanol from corn, it would not be nonsense to say that ethanol should be at the forefront of the political and environmental agenda when we talk about energy transition in Brazil.

Before we import wind turbines and solar panels from China, electric cars from the United States and Europe, pay royalties for Green Hydrogen production and storage technologies, let's take a closer look at the sugar-energy sector, starting with the simple action of evaluating in advance the catastrophic impacts that a mere tax relief on fossil fuels or a botched review of annual targets for decarbonization credits can cause the sector.

Recently, the new president of Petrobras said that the state-owned company will invest in energy transition, that, within 10 years, the world will not have the same logistics, nor the same consumption relationship with the oil and energy sector, and linked to the technological development this change in the sources of energy generation. My dear friend Jean Paul, look fondly at the sugar-energy sector, the solution is here, within reach of the country; the neighbor's grass is not, and never will be, greener than ours.