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Paulo Andrés Trucco da Cunha

Commercial Director of Ethanol and Energy at FS

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The importance of consolidation in the renewable fuels market

Brazil has stood out globally in the production and use of biofuels, particularly ethanol, as part of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote energy sustainability. In this context, ethanol has stood out as a promising renewable energy source, with the potential to replace, at least partially, petroleum-derived fuels.

While sugarcane ethanol has been the main protagonist of this industry, the emergence of corn ethanol in the country represents a significant opportunity to complement this energy matrix, ensuring the consolidation of renewable fuel not only in the automotive market, but also in aviation and the maritime sector. However, it is essential to recognize the complementarity between these two sources to further consolidate the renewable fuels market, especially to expand current markets and open new markets, such as in the aviation and maritime sectors. Corn ethanol becomes a crucial ally to sugarcane ethanol for consolidating the current market and in the transition to a low-carbon economy, providing greater security of supply to decarbonize the aviation and maritime sectors.

The current context of the renewable fuels market:
The transport sector is responsible for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. Given this, reducing the carbon footprint of these industries is an urgent priority. Ethanol has been recognized as a viable alternative, as its burning produces fewer polluting gas emissions compared to fossil fuels. Brazil, in particular, is one of the leaders in ethanol production, mainly from sugar cane, and has played a crucial role in promoting renewable fuels.

Brazil has a long history in the production and use of biofuels, with ethanol playing a central role in this scenario. The vast expanse of arable land and the favorable climate provided the country with ideal conditions for the cultivation of sugar cane and corn. Recently, corn ethanol began to gain space in the Brazilian biofuels market, taking advantage of existing infrastructure and diversification opportunities.

In the automotive market, diversifying the supply of biofuels is essential to guarantee product availability at any time of the year, in different regions of the country. Corn ethanol can play a complementary role to sugar cane ethanol by providing an additional source of renewable fuel for flex-fuel vehicles fuel, which are widely used in Brazil. The characteristics of corn and sugarcane ethanol are the same and comply with the specification standards regulated by the National Petroleum Agency. Additionally, the availability of corn ethanol can help reduce the country's dependence on fossil fuels, contributing to energy security and the resilience of the transportation sector.

This industry has been growing consistently in recent years. According to the National Corn Ethanol Union, by 2030 corn ethanol production should reach 10 billion liters produced in Brazil and represent 20% of the Brazilian market. At this juncture, corn is seen as another raw material for ethanol production, diversifying the supply and providing more guarantee of fuel supply to the consumer, mitigating possible fears, as seen in the past, of lack of supply.

This is also a factor that drives investment in logistics infrastructure, such as: construction of pipelines, more railways and duplication of highways, as well as terminals and warehouses, being a major driver for the national economy. On the demand side, the domestic fuel market already consumed more than 35 billion liters of ethanol in 2019. In 2023, the country consumed only 31 billion liters, with hydrated ethanol representing just 19.6% of the consumption matrix Otto cycle.

In 2019, this percentage was 10 points higher, at 29.3%. In the national market, the large flex fleet fuel, which currently represents around 85% of light vehicles in Brazil, guarantees virtually unlimited growth potential for the coming years. In other words, the ethanol market can still expand significantly in the Brazilian automotive market.

At the international level, according to data from the Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Union, more than 70 countries already have mandates for some level of blending in gasoline, and discussions about increases in blending have become increasingly frequent. In addition to the automotive segment, ambitious environmental targets, especially in the aviation and maritime sectors, should guarantee stable growth in demand for biofuels in the coming decades. In both cases, the greater the diversification of raw materials and origins, the greater the resilience to climatic and economic factors and the more stable the supply of raw materials.

The role of corn ethanol in the renewable fuels market:
While sugarcane ethanol has been widely adopted in many parts of the world, corn ethanol also has distinct advantages that make it an attractive option. Corn ethanol production is well established in countries such as the United States, where corn is a predominant agricultural crop. Furthermore, the corn ethanol production process is simpler and requires less initial investment compared to sugar cane.

Brazil is the third largest corn producer in the world and produced 129 million tons in the last harvest, 12% of which was used to produce ethanol. The conversion of a small part of this production into ethanol offers an additional opportunity to take advantage of production surpluses and diversify the country's energy matrix.

Brazil's environmental and climate characteristics allowed Brazilian corn ethanol production to have two important characteristics that differentiate this industry from that of other countries. In Brazil, the corn used to produce ethanol is called second-crop corn, that is, its planting and harvesting are carried out right after the soybean harvest, within the same crop year.

This process allows corn to take advantage of all the soil nutrients left behind by soybean planting, thus avoiding the addition of agricultural inputs that emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The second characteristic is the fact that the Brazilian corn ethanol plant uses renewable biomass to generate steam and energy necessary for its operation. These two characteristics make Brazilian corn ethanol a biofuel with low carbon emissions.

Complementarity between corn ethanol and sugar cane ethanol:
The complementarity between corn ethanol and sugar cane ethanol lies in their distinct characteristics. While the sugarcane ethanol industry has the flexibility of producing sugar from sugarcane juice instead of ethanol, corn ethanol has its versatility in terms of climate and soil. This means that in regions where sugarcane cultivation is not viable, corn ethanol can fill this gap and vice versa. Furthermore, in Brazil there are even regions where both crops are viable, and, in these cases, the complementarity is also in the so-called flex industries, which produce ethanol from both sugar cane and corn. These positions expand biofuel production options throughout the national territory.

Potential in the aviation and maritime sectors:
Decarbonizing the aviation and maritime sectors is a global challenge due to the high demand for high-energy density fuels and the limited availability of alternatives. "Jet Alcohol" technology has been recognized as one of the most viable options for decarbonizing aviation, with ethanol being transformed into aviation biofuel. This meets a commitment made by the International Civil Aviation Organization, which determines the mandatory blend of sustainable fuel for the aviation sector from 2027, opening up great opportunities for Brazilian ethanol.

The United States, for example, has already established the use of 5 billion liters of sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. For Japan, the goal is to achieve 10% use of sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. These are signs of high demand for the near future and with which Brazil sees a great opportunity, as it is one of the main global producers of ethanol, very rich in its two main raw materials: sugar cane and corn.

Corn and sugarcane ethanol can play complementary roles in these sectors, providing a renewable alternative to fossil fuels. For example, ethanol can be more easily integrated into existing aviation and maritime infrastructure due to its already established production, technology and distribution. The use of ethanol in the aviation and maritime sector can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thus contributing to efforts to combat climate change and promoting the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Conclusion:
The emergence of corn ethanol in Brazil represents a unique opportunity to further diversify and strengthen the country's biofuels sector. Its complementarity with sugar cane ethanol offers significant advantages in terms of supply security, resilience and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, corn ethanol has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing the aviation and maritime sectors, thereby contributing to global efforts to combat climate change.

The consolidation of the renewable fuels market depends on cooperation and complementarity between different energy sources, including corn and sugar cane ethanol. The biofuels sector needs to act together in favor of the development of these markets and leave the competitive relationship aside for these agendas, which are common, of mutual interest and with potential even greater than the existing market. In the aviation and maritime sectors, where demands for alternative fuels are most pressing, this complementarity can play a crucial role in reducing carbon emissions and promoting a more sustainable future. However, it is essential to address challenges and seize opportunities collaboratively to successfully achieve this goal.