In a scenario of transformations and growing uncertainties, understanding and the correct application of these concepts can significantly contribute to the sustainability of bioenergy companies. The conversation raged at lunch with friends who owned and managed a plant in the countryside of São Paulo, when the youngest one commented on how assertive the decision had been, a few years ago, to invest in the installation of a vinasse concentrator.

At the time, the decision was made based on the company's purpose and values, even though the economic return could not be clearly measured. After just two years, the use of concentrated and enriched vinasse had already provided savings of six thousand tons of fertilizers, just in the current harvest.

The subject led me to identify some concepts that I had studied in an article by Professor Alexandre Di Miceli , during the course for training Board Members at the Brazilian Institute of Corporate Governance, and about which I intend to make some provocations in this article. This assertive decision on the concentration of vinasse was made based on the Predict concept and Control or in Sense and answer ? Analyzing the concepts.

What is Predict and Control?
Prediction and Control is the standard mental model that large organizations have adopted for the past hundred years, which is based on looking ahead, predicting outcomes, and then building control-based systems to make those predictions a reality. Predict Techniques and Control are present in most agro-industrial scenarios, involving planning, forecasting or future decisions, whether budget; strategic planning; centralized decision making; behavior incentive; complicated project management; Risk management.

There are two fundamental assumptions inherent in Predict and Control:
1. We can accurately predict results;
2. We can and should use control-based mechanisms to achieve desired outcomes (while enduring or ignoring the negative consequences of these mechanisms).

In such a volatile, fast-paced and unpredictable century, also called the VUCA world, such assumptions face great difficulties to keep up, putting in check the pretensions of trying to predict and control the future.

What is sense and Reply?
Sense and Reply is the alternative model to Predict and Control that had dominated the status quo . Essentially, the idea is that we can absorb a range of data (qualitative and quantitative) and information and react accordingly. This concept is based on the acceptance that we cannot plan too far ahead or hope to control the future; so the best we can do is plot some scenarios, guide the way forward by trying something, watching the reaction, and then trying another option.

To use a common example, we play chess with Sense and Reply; we couldn't play with Predict and Control sense and Respond isn't new, it's how people have self-organized for millennia in their personal, family and community lives. It is, therefore, a concept that puts more humanity into strategy and management, but incorporating the discipline of systemic mental models, as it was originally organized based on Lean principles sense and Reply adds the human feeling, often intangible, with tangible techniques and methodologies, such as URSLIMM: where:

U (understand), understand the value of the business;

R (remove), remove the unnecessary;

S (standardize), standardize;

L (learn), learn by doing;

I (involves), involve everyone;

M (measure), measure what matters, and

M (manage), manage performance visually.

Practical application in bioenergy companies:
Bioenergetic plants and distilleries are large companies, extensive demanders of capital, labor and technology, whose significant part of the operations are subject to engineering principles and another significant part subject to factors external to their own control, such as climate. and market. In this sense, it is possible to understand the application of the two concepts in the management of bioenergetic companies. But, as I learned at the Brazilian Institute of Corporate Governance, sometimes more important than asking what to do is knowing what not to do, learning from the industry's mistakes:

1. Adopt Sense and Respond as an unrestricted practice, considering that entrepreneurs are not even able to control the business, whose results have always been in the hands of the government, God (climate) and the market (large trading companies and distributors). The strategy is to count and take advantage of external factors to sustain the business, mainly political ones. This distorted culture had a certain scope in the sector, mainly due to the state paternalism and the agricultural origin of the majority of the entrepreneurs who implanted the autonomous distilleries in Proálcool, in which the success of each company was very anchored in the capacity of Sense and Respond from an entrepreneurial leader or small group. It was effective only in companies that had illuminated figures, which brought the segment to the level of excellence of our days.

2. Adopt the Predict concept and Control as a rule in all activities, as if management techniques and methodologies were capable of controlling all business variables. This mistake was evident when foreign groups entered the boom at the beginning of this century, which only began to be successful when they surrendered to the reality that our sugarcane and our people form a culture that deserves to be understood and respected at all levels and aspects. of business. There are still strong remnants of this mistake in companies in the sector, in which the focus is still very much on the means and not on the ends, with an infinity of measured indicators, but without effective action with gains in the operation. Many people involved in “manufacturing numbers”, forgetting that what really touches the business are tangible indicators, such as cash, cane, sugar and ethanol; How is Sense missing? and Reply from owner!

3. Not adopting either concept as a practice, losing strategic and operational opportunities due to lack of management maturity.

Proposal:
Knowing, then, what not to do, our provocation comes in the direction of extracting the best of both concepts, considering that each one can provide more consistent results in certain components and aspects of the company. As one of the most complex activities in the world, none of these concepts can be given up.

The idea is to revisit Sense and Respond in areas that lack this type of perception and performance, notably in the formulation and conduct of the strategy, construction and experience of the organization's culture and leadership, and Predict and Control in manageable engineering components, such as agricultural, industrial and logistics operations.

Engineering is understood as factors whose main variables are controllable through the application of known scientific or empirical methods. In this sense, many aspects can be raised, however, due to the space granted for the realization of this article, our proposal involves three initials:

1. Extended cash flow:
Sense and Reply it requires some leeway for maneuvers and course adjustments, so the company's liquidity and bankability, which are already strategic factors, must gain elasticity.

2. Managing by wire:
The combination of the two concepts in the company's culture creates opportunities for people's empowerment through digital transformation, that is, leaving it in the hands of of people what humans do best, which is to perceive directions and adopt strategies, outline tactics and create operational logics, using all the power of the Predict concept and Control to unfold the actions for the operation, through the intensive use of technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence for automation and robotization of tasks.

3. Formation and revitalization of advisory and management councils:
If the prosperity of most bioenergetic groups was due to the abilities of Sense and Responding to its founders, the reality is that many of them are leaving running the business and there are almost always no successors with the same skills and competencies. Investing in the formation of advisory and management councils, or revitalizing the established ones with a diversity of perceptions and competences suited to the great transformations underway in the business environment, is a way of keeping Sense 's capacity up to date. and Reply of the organization.

Conclusion:
For the business to remain healthy and sustainable in a world in constant and accelerated transformation, a culture based on reinvention, resilience and regeneration will be necessary. And this will only be achieved with the understanding and balanced application of Predict concepts. and Control and Sense and Reply. Perhaps this is one of the explanations why bioenergy companies, including large groups, which have an excellent data and management infrastructure, cannot obtain the same results as companies with a simpler structure.